Ahead of Sunday’s meeting, sources familiar with the matter have indicated that OPEC+ is planning to hold its November oil production targets steady. Despite the group’s previous intentions to gradually ramp up output throughout 2026, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted exports, causing many of these increases to exist largely on paper. With regional volatility keeping exports at a fraction of their historical norms, the alliance appears cautious about deviating from its current course.

The persistent instability has also forced a postponement of essential capacity reviews, which were intended to help establish production quotas for 2027. Currently, the seven core member nations—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—are producing significantly less than their pre-war levels, as they continue to navigate a complex landscape of supply chain disruptions. Because of these challenges, experts suggest that any significant policy shift regarding output redistribution is unlikely until at least 2027, as the group struggles to reconcile its ambitious targets with the volatile reality on the ground.