Despite ongoing hostilities and a rise in targeted attacks on shipping, crude oil exports from the Middle East have shown surprising resilience, climbing above pre-war levels during the final week of September. According to shipping data from Kpler, daily exports hit peaks between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels, notably surpassing the 18 million barrel-per-day average recorded prior to the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. This upward trend extends beyond crude, with total shipments of oil products, chemicals, and liquefied natural gas also seeing significant volume increases throughout the month.

However, this commercial success comes against a backdrop of increasing danger for merchant vessels. Intelligence firm Marisks reports a worrying escalation in "kinetic threats" near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighted by the recent projectile strike on the tanker Kazimah III. Experts suggest that rather than specific targeting, Iranian forces may be firing missiles into "kill boxes," turning transit through these vital waterways into a game of Russian roulette. With at least one maritime incident reported daily since early October, the shipping industry remains on edge, navigating a precarious landscape where high-volume trade continues in the shadow of unpredictable military engagement.