As the Norwegian Nobel Committee prepares to reveal this year’s Peace Prize laureate in Oslo, the global spotlight is fixed as much on the winner as it is on the reaction of Donald Trump. Despite the former president’s vocal confidence and unsubstantiated claims regarding his role in ending various international conflicts, most political analysts consider him an unlikely candidate. His controversial stance on multilateralism, immigration, and international relations has distanced him from the committee’s traditional criteria, which have increasingly prioritized human rights and humanitarian efforts over the last few decades.

The committee now faces a delicate balancing act, as any selection could be interpreted as a subtle rebuke of the Republican candidate's policies. Experts suggest the committee is carefully weighing the potential geopolitical fallout, considering whether their choice might trigger a hostile reaction from the White House. While some suggest a non-controversial pick—such as an organization aiding children in Ukraine or Sudanese volunteer networks—might avoid unnecessary tension, others believe the committee may lean into its independence by honoring figures or institutions involved in international justice, even if it risks further straining relations with Trump.