Despite the ongoing geopolitical turmoil surrounding the US-Iran war, OPEC+ has officially greenlit its fourth consecutive monthly increase in oil production quotas. The conflict continues to choke off vital shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a massive supply crisis that has left major producers, including Saudi Arabia, struggling to meet their contractual obligations since late February. While the headlines suggest a push for higher supply, the reality on the ground is starkly different; total production has cratered from 42.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in February to just 33.19 million in April.

During Sunday’s session, seven core member nations—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—voted to raise production targets by 188,000 bpd starting in July. This adjustment mirrors the scale of the June hike, which had already been recalibrated following the United Arab Emirates’ departure from the group. While these seven nations remain the primary architects of output policy, broader meetings involving the full assembly of ministers are not expected to result in any significant shifts, as the group continues to navigate the severe logistical and export bottlenecks caused by the regional military standoff.