SpaceX is currently navigating a precarious period as its share price teeters near its $135 IPO threshold, reflecting a 33% drop from the historic highs seen shortly after its June debut. Despite boasting a massive $1.8 trillion market cap, the company faces significant downward pressure as the market braces for a looming expiration of lockup restrictions. Analysts are keeping a cautious eye on the situation; while many remain bullish on the company’s long-term potential—citing the profitability of Starlink and government contracts—the upcoming influx of shares from insiders and employees could create substantial volatility in the coming months.

The primary concern for investors lies in the sheer volume of stock set to hit the market. Once the company releases its first quarterly earnings, expected in early August, a massive wave of over 900 million shares will become eligible for trading, effectively doubling the current float. With the stock currently trading at a high valuation of 49 times expected revenue, some experts are wary of over-allocating until the market stabilizes. While history shows that companies dipping below their IPO price early on tend to underperform long-term, SpaceX’s unique position as a Musk-led titan keeps many on Wall Street hopeful that its ambitious aerospace goals will ultimately outweigh the near-term supply-demand imbalance.