Brent crude oil surged by 3% on Tuesday, climbing to $99.18 a barrel, as fresh U.S. military strikes in Iran fueled fears over the stability of global energy supply chains. The market reaction follows statements from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who tempered expectations for an immediate resolution to the ongoing conflict by noting that negotiations could take several more days. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely restricted and acting as a bottleneck for nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, traders are increasingly anxious that even a potential peace agreement might not provide the quick relief required to stabilize energy markets.

While diplomats in Doha work toward a memorandum of understanding to halt the three-month-old war, analysts remain skeptical about a swift normalization of shipping routes. Experts at Saxo Bank and IG have pointed out that even if a deal is finalized, the logistical challenges—including mine clearing and the gradual reopening of the waterway—mean that global supply constraints could persist for months. As the U.S. continues to press for the handover of Iran’s enriched uranium and military skirmishes persist, the volatility in oil prices underscores how fragile the current geopolitical situation remains, leaving investors wary of a last-minute collapse in the delicate peace negotiations.