According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, oil production across the Middle East is on a fast track to recovery, with output expected to reach near-normal levels within the next few weeks. A major highlight of this rebound is the United Arab Emirates, which saw a record-breaking export performance in June, reaching between 3.7 and 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE successfully navigated regional tensions by rerouting supplies through alternative facilities like the Fujairah and Khor Fakkan ports, effectively bypassing the Strait of Hormuz during the height of the volatility.

While daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 70 percent of pre-conflict levels, analysts warn that flows may remain sporadic in the short term. Despite recent geopolitical friction following the interim ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the overall market trend points toward stability, reflected by a significant cooling in Brent crude prices. Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates a global return to oversupply by late 2026, supported by robust production growth outside of OPEC and the continued, albeit gradual, stabilization of critical maritime shipping routes.