During the first half of July, Gulf nations ramped up their crude and condensate exports to their highest levels since the outbreak of hostilities in late February. According to data from Kpler and Vortexa, daily shipments from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran jumped significantly—rising roughly 16% compared to June averages. This initial surge briefly eased global supply anxieties, driven by early optimism surrounding an interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran intended to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the outlook has since darkened as that diplomatic progress collapsed early in the month. As regional skirmishes intensify, shipping activity through the critical Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, hitting its lowest daily transit numbers since May. Analysts warn that this cooling in maritime activity will likely force producing nations to curtail their output. With Saudi Arabia increasingly relying on its Red Sea port of Yanbu to circumvent the conflict zone, the region’s total export volume remains roughly 32% below the peaks seen just before the fighting began.