Despite the ongoing instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the recent departure of the UAE, insiders suggest that OPEC+ is leaning toward another production quota increase for July. During their upcoming Sunday meeting, the seven core nations—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—are expected to push forward with a monthly hike of approximately 188,000 barrels per day. This move is part of a broader, gradual effort to roll back the significant output cuts originally agreed upon by the coalition in 2023, signaling a desire to return to a more standard business model despite internal and geopolitical hurdles.

While these scheduled quota increases aim to stabilize the market, the actual output has struggled to keep pace. Significant export reductions by Gulf members have caused real-world production levels to drop significantly compared to earlier this year. Nevertheless, the group appears committed to the current trajectory, with plans to potentially unwind the remaining production cuts by the end of September. Although a final consensus has yet to be reached, the technical meetings currently taking place in Vienna suggest that the alliance is prioritizing its recovery strategy, even as logistical disruptions continue to complicate global energy supplies.