Fitch Ratings suggests that debt issuance from banks in the UAE and the broader Gulf region is unlikely to match the record-breaking figures seen in 2025. This cooling trend is primarily driven by a deceleration in credit growth combined with wider credit spreads. While the early months of 2026 showed some activity—with roughly $6.2 billion in US dollar debt issued between January and April—this remains significantly lower than the pace observed during the same period last year. Nevertheless, the sector maintains a stable outlook, bolstered by strong Tier 1 capital ratios that reached 15.8% by the end of 2025, which helps mitigate near-term extension risks.

Looking ahead, the market trajectory remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and regional instability. Should conflict persist, Fitch anticipates that GCC banks will increasingly pivot toward syndicated loans and private placements rather than public debt markets. Despite potential risks to liquidity, the region’s banks are well-positioned with robust capital buffers and state support to safeguard their credit profiles. Notably, investor confidence remains resilient; for instance, the recent $750 million AT1 capital issuance by Emirates NBD serves as a strong indicator that there is still healthy appetite for regional financial instruments, even amidst a shifting global economic landscape.