The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a concerning forecast, predicting that rainfall throughout July—typically the most critical month for the country’s monsoon—will fall below the 94 percent threshold. This follows a disappointing June, which ranked as the fifth-driest since 1901 and the driest in over a decade, with precipitation levels hitting only 60 percent of the long-term average. Regions such as Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan have been particularly hard hit, leaving agricultural sectors and water management agencies scrambling to prepare for potential water shortages, heat stress, and reduced hydropower output.

The primary culprit behind this sluggish monsoon is the emergence of El Niño, which has warmed Pacific sea surface temperatures and weakened the winds that drive rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. While historical data links El Niño to past drought years, climate experts are looking toward a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to potentially offset some of these negative impacts. Meanwhile, the weather situation remains volatile; despite the broader dry spell, the IMD has issued a yellow alert for Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra due to anticipated heavy downpours. This localized intensity has already begun to disrupt transportation, with major airlines issuing travel advisories for passengers heading to Mumbai’s airports.