The International Labour Organization (ILO) has issued a stark warning regarding the global economic fallout of the ongoing Middle East conflict, noting that its impact is extending far beyond the immediate region. According to the agency, the crisis is triggering a complex chain reaction that threatens to destabilize labor markets worldwide through rising energy costs, disrupted supply chains, and a significant slump in the tourism and transport sectors. Experts caution that this is not merely a temporary setback; rather, it is a persistent shock that could cause a decline in real wages and a loss of millions of full-time jobs throughout 2026 and 2027.

The economic projections are particularly concerning for the Gulf states and the Asia-Pacific region, which are expected to bear the heaviest burden. Should oil prices sustain a 50 percent increase, the global economy could see the loss of approximately 14 million full-time jobs by 2026, ballooning to 43 million the following year. Migrant workers, who rely heavily on labor sectors like construction and hospitality, are at the highest risk, and any downturn in their employment levels will inevitably trigger a sharp reduction in remittances to their home countries. As the ILO suggests, the long-term consequences of this volatility could potentially rival the economic damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.