The Strait of Hormuz has become a volatile focal point, with rising maritime attacks and dangerous conditions for merchant sailors. As October saw a record surge in vessel incidents, the global energy supply chain has relied on shuttle systems and American naval support to maintain the flow of crude oil. While Washington’s political establishment remains fixated on the midterm elections, the real danger lies in the nine-week "lame duck" period between Election Day and the seating of the new Congress in January. During this transition, the political constraints that previously discouraged military escalation may vanish, leaving the region in a precarious state as both Tehran and Washington calibrate their actions around the American electoral calendar.

To mitigate this volatility, Gulf nations—specifically Qatar, Oman, and the UAE—should spearhead a 61-day de-escalation freeze. By brokering a narrow agreement where Iran halts maritime attacks in exchange for a public commitment from Washington to avoid new strikes on Iranian soil, these mediators can buy time for the region. Relying on regional diplomatic channels is far more reliable than waiting for a gridlocked U.S. Congress to find its footing. By stabilizing the status quo during this sensitive transition, Gulf states can ensure that the next phase of the conflict is debated in Washington’s committee rooms rather than being fought out at the expense of regional security and global energy markets.