Drivers in the UAE are finally set for some relief at the pump this July, as fuel costs are projected to decrease following four months of steady increases. This shift comes as a welcome change after retail prices climbed by over 60% since late February, fueled by tensions in the Middle East. June saw prices hit record highs, with Super 98 reaching Dh3.95 per litre, but the recent downward trend in global crude oil markets—which have tumbled more than $20 a barrel—suggests that consumers will see lower rates when new prices are announced next month.

The cooling of oil prices is largely attributed to a breakthrough US-Iran peace deal and the subsequent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As shipping traffic normalizes, millions of barrels that were previously trapped in the region are now hitting the global market, shifting the industry focus from supply shortages to a surplus. Market experts note that as exports return to near pre-crisis levels, the market has transitioned from a deficit to a surplus. While this influx of oil is causing short-term volatility, it provides a clear signal that the inflationary pressure on UAE fuel prices is finally beginning to subside.