Motorists in the UAE are bracing for the potential of a fourth straight monthly fuel price hike as the fuel committee prepares to announce the rates for June. This upward trend, which has seen petrol costs surge by roughly 50 percent since February, is primarily driven by global crude oil prices hovering above $100 per barrel throughout May. Supply chain concerns, exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have kept Brent crude prices elevated, recently averaging around $106 per barrel compared to April’s $99.

While the prospect of rising costs places further pressure on household budgets—reminding many of the historic price peaks seen in 2022—there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Analysts suggest that a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran could alleviate this strain. According to Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, any progress toward a peace deal could lead to a significant influx of Iranian oil into the global market. Such a development would likely reduce geopolitical tensions and could cause oil prices to drop by as much as 4 to 8 percent, offering much-needed relief to consumers at the pump.