Helima Croft, a leading global commodities strategist at RBC and a former CIA analyst, suggests that the market has remained dangerously optimistic regarding the resolution of current Middle Eastern conflicts. Leveraging her background in intelligence, Croft argues that the energy sector has consistently underestimated how difficult it is to end wars once they begin. She warns that global oil supplies are approaching the limits of their safety margins, with the security of the Strait of Hormuz—critical for global energy flow—facing persistent threats that go beyond simple nuclear negotiations. According to Croft, the Revolutionary Guard's focus on regional control makes a quick diplomatic exit unlikely, leaving the market vulnerable to continued volatility and supply chain disruptions.

The ongoing conflict has forced a critical rethink of energy security across the globe, with a newfound emphasis on resilience and infrastructure redundancy. Countries that relied on the assumption of seamless trade are now realizing that "just-in-time" supply chains are insufficient during geopolitical crises. Croft points out that nations are likely to prioritize massive, long-term investments in emergency reserves and diversified energy sources, including renewables, to insulate themselves from future maritime blockades or regional instability. Ultimately, the Middle East is shifting toward a culture of deeper cooperation, where infrastructure investments that once seemed redundant are now viewed as essential safeguards for survival in an unpredictable geopolitical landscape.